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China factory growth seen cooling slightly in June, trade war a worry – Reuters poll

According to the median forecast of 25 economists in a Reuters poll, the Chinese manufacturing sector activity appears to have eased a bit in the month of June when compared to May’s unexpected rebound.

Key Findings:

“The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is seen slipping to 51.6 in June from 51.9 in May.

The 50-mark divides expansion from contraction on a monthly basis.

The slowdown comes just as U.S. President Donald Trump pushes ahead with tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese imports, with threats for up to $400 billion more that has policy makers and investors worried about the broader economic impact of the bitter trade fight.

For now, the industrial sector has shown few signs of stress, with profits rising 21 percent in May as ex-factory price inflation has remained solid.

Separately, a private survey on China’s factory activity is forecast to show a similar mild easing trend.

The private Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ index (PMI) is expected to have fallen slightly to 51.0 in June versus 51.1 in May.”

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