Analysts at Deutsche Bank note that the EU leaders negotiated a package of measures on migration at the EU summit where member states agreed to increase border security and pledged to overhaul rules for distributing migrants when a host country is overwhelmed.
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“This came despite expectations being low for some form of multilateral agreement so its come as a fairly positive surprise. Importantly for Chancellor Merkel, the joint statement indicated a commitment to “all necessary measures” to curb the movement of migrants northward.”
“That said it still remains unclear whether the package will be enough for Merkel to go back successfully to Seehofer’s CSU with however we will get a better idea of that over the weekend. In a report our German economists published yesterday prior to the overnight developments, the team highlighted that the CDU and CSU grandees will – in separate meetings – assess the outcome, in light of their positioning.”
“Our colleagues expect both parties to come to a tentative and preliminary conclusion that things are moving in the right direction, but that major steps need to be taken. This would be face-saving for both sides and would allow Merkel (and Seehofer) to stay in office.”
“On the other hand an alternative scenario, of fundamental discord between the CDU and CSU over the summit’s outcome, could trigger a government crisis in their view, which would likely lead to the CSU walking out of the federal government. So it’ll be well worth seeing how things develop over the weekend.”
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