In the view of the analysts at National Australia Bank (NAB), the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) on hold when it meets at its policy meeting on Tuesday.
Key Quotes:
“RBA Board Meeting is universally expected to again leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%
In recent months, the Bank has been clear: it needs to see greater progress on unemployment, wages and inflation before it considers a hike. It’s an on-hold position that is unlikely to change for some time yet.
Nevertheless, post-meeting communication will be carefully watched for subtle shifts in the Bank’s outlook.
In particular, the RBA will publish its latest forecasts for GDP, inflation and unemployment in its quarterly Statement with some possible hints on Tuesday. (We look for little change in the forecasts.)
Since the last Board Meeting, offshore developments have shifted. We’ve seen US-China trade risks intensify: tariffs have kicked in, the CNY has been depreciating and the US Administration has threatened escalation.
The AUD/USD has remained relatively low, around 74 cents. We’ll be watching the RBA’s interpretation of these developments in the post-meeting media release, the Statement and Lowe’s speech and Q&A.”
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