Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank explained that US manufacturing activity accelerated in H2-2016, and manufacturing employment grew by 2.6% y/y in July 2018, the fastest y/y growth pace since 1985.
Key Quotes:
“The reasons for the rebound could be political or tied to the domestic or global business cycle; either way, a spurt relatively late in the business cycle is exceptional. Typically, hitting a 34-year high in manufacturing employment growth would be a political boon to the president and his party ahead of the November midterm elections.”
“We examine how manufacturing employment has performed in states that voted Republican in the 2016 presidential elections and in those where midterm elections are expected to be particularly competitive.”
“We conclude that many of the states that Trump won in 2016 have seen outsized gains in manufacturing employment since the election; among the states expected to see close races in the 2018 midterms, growth in manufacturing employment accelerated, on net. This could be a tailwind for Republican candidates.”
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