Raphael Bostic, president and the CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, published an essay titled “What Does the Current Slope of the Yield Curve Tell Us?” on Thursday. Below are some key takeaways from the essay.
- There is no evidence of a market forecast that the FOMC will need to reverse course in the medium term.
- I do not interpret that the yield curve indicates that the market believes the evolution of the economy will cause the FOMC to lower rates in the foreseeable future.
- This interpretation is consistent with my own economic forecast.
- My modal outlook is for expansion to continue at an above-trend pace for the next several quarters, and I see the risks to that projection as balanced.
- Yes, there are downside risks, chief among them the effects of (and uncertainty about) trade policy.
- But those risks are countered by the potential for recent fiscal stimulus to have a much more transformative impact on the economy than I’ve marked into my baseline outlook.
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