Bill Diviney, senior economist at ABN Amro explained that following the conviction of President Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort, and the guilty plea of his former lawyer Michael Cohen, speculation has increased that the President may face impeachment proceedings should the Democrats win a majority in the House at the 6 November midterm elections.
Key Quotes:
“Based on the latest opinion polling, the Democrats do indeed have a reasonable chance of winning the House, and the implication of Trump by his former lawyer in the breaking of campaign financing rules would likely be sufficient grounds for impeachment.”
“However, as with President Clinton’s impeachment 1998, this does not mean the President will be removed. For that, a 2/3 majority in the Senate is required.”
“While Democrats could take some Senate seats, and perhaps gain a slim majority, it is arithmetically impossible for the party to achieve a 2/3 majority – not all seats are up for election, and of those that are, most are already held by Democrats. For President Trump, the charges against him have to be so grave that senators in his own party join Democrats to vote to remove him.”
“A significant decline in the President’s approval ratings would likely also be necessary (as things stand, his approval ratings have increased through most of 2018). With the Mueller investigation still ongoing, such a scenario could yet materialise. But the events of recent days are unlikely on their own to lead to the President’s removal.”
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