Analysts at NAB expect that the Australian GDP will increase by just under 3.0% in 2018 and 2019, with growth driven by mining exports, public infrastructure investment and a continued recovery in non-mining business investment (which will receive some support from spill overs from public infrastructure investment).
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“These trends are evident across most of the states, although the upturn in commodity exports as mining projects move to the production phase is concentrated in Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory.”
“However, household consumption growth will likely remain soft and dwelling investment is likely to ease, although it should remain at a high level given the large pipelines of work across many states.”
“We think the balance of risks has shifted a little to the downside. The NAB Monthly Business Survey showed that business conditions continued their downward trend evident since earlier in the year and this trend has been broadly based across states.”
“We expect that economic fundamentals will lead to further falls in overall USD commodity prices through to end-2019, which may limit the upside for mining regions.”
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