Analysts at Nomura offered their tracker-update for US GDP after the release of the Q2 GDP, second estimate.
Key Quotes:
“Q2 GDP, second estimate: The BEA’s estimate of Q2 real GDP growth was revised up 0.1pp to 4.2% q-o-q saar in the second estimate, above expectations (Nomura and Consensus: 4.0%). Looking at the details, the upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment contributed to part of the miss (with higher IPP, from the advance QSS report, and equipment investment), as well as a downward revision to imports (revised to a 0.4% decline from a 0.5% increase). Overall, however, there were few surprises in the report and the trajectory of growth remains the same. In addition, the inflation numbers were essentially unchanged from the advance reading. Today’s release included the first estimate of Q2 real GDI, which grew at a rate of 1.8% q-o-q saar. The average of GDP and GDI growth stands at 3.0% q-o-q saar, consistent with our assessment of current US economic momentum.”
GDP tracking update:
“Inventory accumulation was revised up slightly more than expected in the second estimate of Q2 GDP growth, implying slightly less inventory investment in Q3. However, July’s decline in pending home sales was somewhat less than we had expected, implying more residential investment in Q3. Taken altogether, after rounding, our Q3 GDP tracking estimate is unchanged at 3.1% q-o-q saar.”
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