Next week, the economic calendar, includes ISM and the NFP. According to analysts from Danske Bank, the jobs report is expected to show steady wage growth and rebounding employment.
Key Quotes:
“On Wednesday, the public hearing period for the second round of US tariffs on Chinese imports (USD200bn) is ending. It remains our base case that Trump will soon afterwards announce that he is in fact going to impose the tariffs. For comparison, Trump announced the first round of tariffs one week after the hearing period ended (implementation was two and half weeks after the announcement).”
“We get the August jobs report on Friday. It is not as important as previously, as the Fed seems on track to deliver two more hikes this year. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.2% m/m, which would leave the annual growth rate unchanged at 2.7% y/y. We think nonfarm payroll rose 200,000, making up for some of the disappointment in July. The unemployment rate was likely unchanged at 3.9%.”
“It is difficult to work out what is happening with ISM manufacturing. It has been very high for a long time compared to both hard data and the Markit PMI manufacturing index. It remains our base case that ISM will fall over in the coming months and we expect that the index was 57.3 in August versus 58.1 in July.”
Share
