Julien Manceaux, Senior Economist at ING, notes that the France’s industrial production rebounded by 0.7% month on month in July, after 0.7% in June.
Key Quotes
“This adds to previous signs that industrial production growth could now be stabilising at levels just below 2% year on year.”
“After declines of 1.3% and 0.3% quarter on quarter in the first two quarters of the year, we should witness a small rebound in 3Q18.”
“Manufacturing production increased by 0.5% in July, but only investment goods production increased (by 2.3% MoM) while both consumer durables and intermediate goods saw declines.”
“Overall, the July reading is in line with our expectations.”
“We still believe that the second half of 2018 could be stronger than the first. It will be insufficient to lift GDP growth above 2% in 2018 but is certainly a sign that the current phase of the cycle is not over yet.”
“Construction activity, which grew by 2.9% in 2017, stabilised in 2018 (-0.1% YoY so far this year). This had been confirmed by household investment growth in 1H18 GDP figures (it increased by a mere 0.2% QoQ in 1Q18 and declined by 0.1% in 2Q18, the lowest rate since 2015).”
“We still expect 2.7% house price growth in 2018 after 3.2% in 2017.”
Share
