Erik Johannes Bruce, Research Analyst at Nordea Markets, suggests that at 08.00 11 September Statistic Norway will for the first time publish monthly GDP figures with a July figure and there is no consensus forecast and at least this first figure will probably be a non-event.
Key Quotes
“My guess is that these figures will be too volatile to have any meaning full information. But we will see. Anyway we will look for a monthly figure for July mainland GDP which is consistent with a yearly growth at around 2 ½%.”
“Norges Bank forecast growth at 0.7% q/q in Q3 which is consistent with an indicator at 1.4. That is what the firms themselves expected in the forward looking indictor in the Q2 and what we expect too.”
“The outlook for most part of the economy is rather strong with the exception of construction which probably is held down by the sharp a drop in housing investment.”
“Growth in the retail sector might also be rather weak given signs of weak retail sales in summer. The indicator should be outside a range of say 1.2 and 1.6 to have a significant impact on Norges Bank’s view.”
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