Analysts at Td Securities explained that their base case calls for a 75% chance of a successful Brexit Withdrawal Agreement (including a transition phase).
Key Quotes:
“We think that the lead negotiators will almost certainly reach agreement by December this year, with a yet-scheduled 13 November EU leaders summit the most likely date for EU leaders’ sign-off.”
“What matters more in the coming months are UK political dynamics, as passage of the Withdrawal Agreement and trade statement through the UK Parliament is far from guaranteed.”
“The note summarises our base-case view for Brexit negotiations and describes the political procedures required to approve the Withdrawal Agreement. It then outlines two key ways that a no-deal Brexit might occur, and explores political shocks and risks going forward that could severely impact the negotiations.”
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