Analysts at Nomura explained that recently Italy’s PMI data strongly disappointed the consensus on the downside, with today’s industrial production figures providing further negative news – this time from the official (as opposed to survey) data.
Key Quotes:
“In a period of high political uncertainty and market turbulence, a possible slowdown in growth could darken the Italian outlook even further. As a consequence, we are closely monitoring Italian data for any early signals of an economic slowdown and, ultimately, of a recession.”
“What’s next? For sure, one data point does not provide sufficient evidence about the future growth outlook for Italy. We need to see much more than this to affirm that the probability of a recession in Italy is “high”. The next relevant data to monitor will be: ï‚· 18 Sep: July industrial orders ï‚· 27 Sep: September manufacturing and consumer confidence ï‚· 1 Oct: September manufacturing PMI ï‚· 3 Oct: September services and composite PMI.”
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