Analysts at Nomura explained their outlook for the next key US data this week.
Key Quotes:
PPI:
“Excluding volatile food, energy and trade services, core PPI continued to rise relatively strongly by 0.3% m-o-m in July. For August, we expect continued modest acceleration in prices for goods and services provided by domestic businesses. Note that our forecasts for the August CPI report can be revised based on relevant components of the PPI report.”
Fed Beige Book:
“Consistent with solid underlying economic momentum in recent months, we expect the September Beige Book to report continued “modest to moderate” growth across the majority of Federal Reserve districts. However, the report is likely to highlight continued uncertainty from local businesses regarding US trade policy. The July Beige Book noted that “manufacturers in all Districts expressed concern about tariffs and in many Districts reported higher prices and supply disruptions that they attributed to the new trade policies.” With another tranche of China tariffs taking effect 23 August (25% on $16bn) and another $200bn currently under review, local business concerns regarding the impact of protectionism may remain acute.”
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