Christopher Graham, Economist at Standard Chartered, points out that with fewer than 200 days until 29 March 2019, when the UK is set to leave the EU (Brexit), a mammoth task faces the UK government.
Key Quotes
“Not only must Prime Minister (PM) Theresa May reach an agreement with the European Commission – no simple task given how intractable the Northern Ireland backstop issue is proving – but also, the much harder job of getting the deal through the UK legislative branch will begin.”
“Our core view remains that a deal will eventually be brokered between the UK and EU, but this deal will likely depart from the government’s current Chequers plan.”
“More likely is that the UK government will make further concessions to the EU, leading ultimately to a softer Brexit, but given the level of uncertainty, and the degree to which political personalities continue to dominate the debate, we cannot rule out a ‘hard Brexit’ (akin to a Canada-style free trade agreement) gaining ground.”
“There are various ways that the UK parliament can make life difficult for the government, and we think an extension of Article 50 and a leadership challenge are possible scenarios over the next few months.”
“We also cannot rule out a general election, a cliff-edge, no-deal Brexit or a second referendum; but these remain lower-risk events in our view, at least for now.”
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