US: Core retail sales expected to increase by steady 0.4% in August – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect a steady 0.4% m-o-m increase in US core (“control”) retail sales in August following a 0.5% gain in July.

Key Quotes

“The ISM non-manufacturing survey indicated healthy activity in the retail sector in August. Moreover, the strong labor market and steady income gains likely remained supportive for retail sales in August.”

“Elsewhere, we expect a rebound in building material sales in August which remained flat in the previous month. Receipts at food services venues likely remained strong following the recent trend. However, WardsAuto’s total light vehicle sales estimates indicated slower sales in August and point to weaker receipts at auto and parts dealers. Excluding autos, we expect a solid 0.5% m-o-m gain in retail sales. We forecast 0.4% m-o-m increase in aggregate retail sales.”