The midterms bring binary risks to the USD, though the risk is skewed to the downside.
Key Quotes:
“A divided Congress, for instance, could see the market start to question how much longer US assets can outperform the rest of the world.”
“A reversal of stimulus is unlikely but the long USD trade is well populated. The USD also runs rich to longer-term valuation models, so growth outperformance is crucial for continued outperformance into year-end.”
“However, if Republicans maintain control of the Congress that would likely reinforce the USD topside into year-end, especially against other reserve currencies like EUR and JPY.”
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