The recent price action around the pair prompts some caution, noted Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.
“USD/TRY has remained under pressure and has eroded the August 6 high at 5.4209. We have a 6 month uptrend at 5.34 and this is currently being eroded. The new low has not been confirmed by the daily RSI and caution is warranted near term”.
“Rallies will find the short term downtrend at 5.7695 and while capped here the market will remain directly. Above here would allow for recovery to the 5.8692 23rd October high and the 55 day ma at 6.0331″.
“Below 5.30, further, stronger support, comes in at the May and July highs at 4.9624/4.9233. Slightly ahead of here we have a double Fibonacci retracement at 5.06/5.03″.