Below are some key takeaways from the “Third Quarter 2018 Survey of Professional Forecasters,” published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- The panel predicts real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 3.0 percent this quarter and 2.8 percent next quarter, unchanged from the estimates of three months ago.
- On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters expect real GDP to grow 2.8 percent in 2018 and 2019, 1.8 percent in 2020, and 1.5 percent in 2021.
- The forecasters predict the unemployment rate will average 3.9 percent in 2018, 3.6 percent in 2019, 3.7 percent in 2020, and 4.0 percent in 2021.
- The projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 194,800 in 2018, up from the previous estimate of 185,900, and 167,800 in 2019, up from 160,800 estimated three months ago.
- The forecasters expect current-year headline CPI inflation to average 2.4 percent, down slightly from 2.5 percent in the last survey.
- The forecasters have marginally revised downward the chance of a contraction in real GDP in any of the next three quarters.
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