UK: CPI likely to print 2.4% – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura are forecasting an unchanged CPI print of 2.4% for the UK economy and an unchanged RPI print of 3.3%.

Key Quotes

“While oil prices fell in October, during the month they were, on average, higher than in September, so there should be no downside pull from this. Also, forecast errors for October have tended to be on the downside in recent years for both RPI and CPI inflation, presenting possible downside risks to consensus forecasts.”

“Producer price inflation: Despite the recent notable fall, oil prices rose on average from September to October. The upward impact on import prices during the month should, however, be tempered by a rise in sterling’s trade weighted index. This explains our modest +0.5% monthly forecast. As for output prices, we expect a smaller 0.1% increase (core), which would be in line with the PMI and CBI output price indicators during the month.”