Analysts at ANZ suggest that while global growth remains above average, available GDP data for Q3 point to a slowdown in the second half of the year.
Key Quotes
“Business surveys also indicate a slowdown is underway, particularly in manufacturing, but there are tentative signs that overall activity may be stabilising. This is consistent with the message from our leading indicator.”
“With growth slowing and increasingly divergent, central banks (on average) lifting policy interest rates, trade disputes and other events creating an uncertain back drop, financial market volatility has lifted.”
“In October, there were large falls in equity markets, including in the US. Commodity prices also declined in the month, but this was largely driven by an easing in crude oil supply concerns, which is a welcome development if sustained.”
“The divergence in the growth rates between the major advanced economies (AEs) that emerged in the first half of 2018 has carried over into Q3.”
“We expect above average global growth in 2018 at 3.7%, slowing to 3.6% in 2019 and 3.5% in 2020 (the long-term historical average).”
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