Today, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney spoke to the UK Parliament’s Treasury Committee and was joined by Chief Economist Andy Haldane, deputy governor Jon Cunliffe and policy maker Michael Saunders, notes the research team at ABN AMRO.
Key Quotes
“They warned of the dangers of leaving the EU without a smooth exit. Mr Carney said that it takes about four years to agree the average trade deal, which is about the twice as long as the current transition period. So this gives a very limited window to negotiate.”
“Chief Economist Andy Haldane said that uncertainty surrounding Brexit had already started to impact businesses and could lead to weaker growth in the fourth quarter.”
“The EU leaders will meet on 25 November to endorse the UK’s exit deal from the EU. Prime Minister May then takes the deal to parliament, most likely in mid-December.”
“We think that parliament will pass the deal to avoid a chaotic No-deal outcome. However, this is with a low conviction level. If parliament opposes the deal and the government collapses, a new government could be returned to push through an agreement, whether Conservative or Labour. However, there continues to be a material risk of a No-deal Brexit.”
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