Analyst, Aila Mihr at Danske Bank notes that the ECB minutes from the October meeting proved relatively uneventful, without any new guidance on the growth or inflation outlook, although a remark was made on the maturity of some of the TLTROs falling below one year in 2019.
Key Quotes
“ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet said in an interview yesterday that ‘it is premature to decide on a new TLTRO now.’ We still expect another TLTRO round to be announced in Q1 19.”
“Officials acknowledged ‘uncertainties and fragilities’ affecting the economy, but this was not enough to alter the balanced growth risk assessment. The void of new information in the October minutes confirmed that the 13 December meeting will be pivotal, with the ECB formally ending QE as part of its ‘dovish tightening’, new staff forecasts on growth and inflation released as well as updated guidance on the reinvestment strategy, including the capital key update.”
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