Prakash Sakpal, Economist at ING, suggests that their view of a slowdown in India’s GDP growth to 7.5% YoY in the July-September cycle from 8.2% in the previous quarter, which was the fastest rate of growth in two years, is consistent with the median consensus estimate in the latest Bloomberg survey.
Key Quotes
“GDP data is due on Friday, 30 November.”
“After a sharp slump from late 2016, demonetisation growth started to pick in 2Q18 and gathered significant momentum over the next two quarters. While this high base effect is at work to depress the annual increase, weaker exports and private consumption, and increasing drag from net trade support expectations of GDP slowdown.”
“GDP slowdown and stable inflation under 4% will give more reasons to the central bank to leave the monetary policy on hold, as this is what we now forecast for the December policy meeting.”
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