“October CPI and September retail sales were a mixed bag for markets as upside on headline inflation accompanied downward revisions to core measures, although the latter recovered to 2.0% on average,” note TD Securities analysts.
Key quotes
“Retail sales were mixed, with sales up 0.2% m/m on an unexpected increase in motor vehicle sales up 0.5% to contribute 0.14% to the headline print.”
” Today’s data does little to alter the near-term outlook for the BoC. Our tracking for Q3 growth remains in line with the Bank’s projections at 1.8% and so long as recent weakness in oil prices proves transitory we remain comfortable with our call for three rates hikes for 2019, with the next coming in January.”
“FX: The upside surprise in the headline CPI print offered a very quick buying opportunity in USDCAD. Still, the data itself was as a clear as mud but offers little in the way of policy implications. We think the pair is going to respect the boundaries of the well-established 1.28/1.32 range, leaving us to fade the rallies ahead of 1.33.”
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