“Growth deceleration on the back of regulatory tightening will be augmented by the impact of tariffs on exports destined for the US, with potential increases in tariff pressure in 2019,” note TD Securities analysts.
Key quotes
“There is a risk that the government sets 2019 growth expectations too high, forcing heavier monetary and fiscal policy support, which could exacerbate China’s debt burden and depreciate CNY.”
“The developments between China and the U.S. at the December G20 meeting are definitely constructive in ameliorating the downside risks to growth via the trade channel. However our view is that the hurdle for a meaningful, sustained detente remains high, leaving very material risks.”
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