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Fed’s Kaplan: Very possible US economy will look very different by mid-2019

“I keep attuned to the idea that it’s very possible that by the middle of 2019 the economy may look very different than it does today, and because of that I think it’s wise to be patient in our actions,” Dallas Fed President Kaplan told Reuters in an interview in Laredo, Texas, on Monday.

Key quotes

  • Fiscal stimulus has bumped up growth this year but will fade next year and in 2020.
  • Our tools are asymmetrical, meaning, it’s easier to tighten than to ease; and I’m also very sensitive to the fact that in the next downturn, or slowing, because we are very highly leveraged at the federal government, we may have less capacity for fiscal policy than we had in the past.
  • I don’t think people should be confused by our message.
  • Some have used the term data-dependent; I’ve used the term patient.
  • There’s not a confusion, it’s just there’s more uncertainty. If they are taking from it there’s more uncertainty, I think that’s probably a good message.

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