“On Friday, 1001 delegates will vote on the next chairman or chairwoman of the CDU, marking the first end of the Merkel era,” note ING analysts.
Key quotes
“As exciting as this vote might be, the bigger question is what the impact will be on German and European politics. Contrary to an often heard view that AKK would be positive for Merkel, while Merz would mean trouble, we think that both would work well with Merkel as chancellor. Even Merz, who definitely is not Merkel’s best friend, will first want to build up his profile in the run-up to the next elections. An interesting detail is that the chancellor does not have to be a member of parliament.”
“So Merz could theoretically replace Merkel, in case she steps down before the end of her term. However, our base case view is that the CDU and any new chairman or woman will support Merkel’s current course and have an interest in bringing the current government to the official end of the current term, ie, 2021.”
“The bigger risk for the existence of the government coalition is the SPD. Another severe loss at the European elections next year could eventually trigger the SPD exiting the coalition. But this is for next year. First, the CDU’s casting show will bring an end to one of the most turbulent political years in Germany since the reunification.”
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