According to analysts at Danske Bank, the first day of the five-day long Brexit debate was quite eventful as early yesterday, the European Court of Justice ruled that the UK can unilaterally revoke the Article 50 notification (which started the Brexit clock), as long as it has parliamentary backing (given the notification itself required approval in the House of Commons).
Key Quotes
“In the House of Commons, PM Theresa May lost three votes. Without going into too many details, the most important one gives the House of Commons more power over what happens in case May’s deal fails on Tuesday, which seems very likely at this point. While May’s defeats show party discipline in the Conservative Party is low, it may actually turn out to be positive for Theresa May.”
“There is no majority for a ‘no deal’ Brexit in the House of Commons and any changes to the Brexit deal will likely be in a softer direction. This makes Theresa May’s case for ‘my deal or risk softer/no Brexit’ more credible, which may eventually convince some of the hardliners to vote in favour of her deal in a second attempt. Moderate Conservatives have warned the hardliners about this for a long time.”
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