AUD/USD holds below 100-day MA as a drop in Aussie trade surplus overshadows above-forecast Aussie retail sales

• An above-forecast Aussie retail sales data is struggling to put a bid under the Aussie dollar.
• A drop in the Aussie trade surplus is likely overshadowing the upbeat retail sales figure.
• The AUD/USD pair could drop to 50-day EMA, having found acceptance below the 100-day EMA support.

Australia October retail sales bettered estimates, but the above-forecast reading is doing little to support the Aussie dollar.

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at a session low of 0.7254, having found acceptance below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 0.7232.

The retail sales rose 0.3 percent, beating the estimated growth of 0.2 percent. So far, however, the AUD isn’t impressed, possibly because October trade surplus, also released along with retail sales, came in well below estimates.

Australia’s exports rose 1 percent in October- unchanged from the previous month’s reading, while imports jumped 3 percent, having contracted by 1 percent in September. As a result, trade surplus dropped to AUD 2,316 million as opposed to an expected rise to AUD 3,200 million from the previous month’s print of AUD 3,017 million.

The data indicate that international trade is likely to act as a drag on the GDP.

Looking forward, the AUD risks extending losses to 0.7232 (50-day EMA) as the dismal Aussie third quarter GDP released yesterday has likely reinforced expectations that the RBA is unlikely to raise rates before the second half of 2020.

AUD/USD Technical Levels