The economists’ conviction that the European Central Bank (ECB) would raise rates in the third quarter of 2019 has faded over the last month as the probability of recession has risen, according to Reuters poll conducted Dec. 4-7.
Key points (Source: Reuters)
Eurozone recession probability in one year rises to 20 percent, 30 percent in 2 years (15 percent, 25 percent previously).
The risk is low that the European central bank will extend the asset purchase program beyond this month, say all 64 economists
ECB to raise deposit rates in Q3 2019, but the conviction on a hike has faded over the past month.
ECB refinancing rate hike now expected in Q1 2020 (Q4 2019 previously), but a close call.
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