EUR/USD ticking towards 1.1500, market sentiment leaning bullish for the week’s end

• Early Friday action is leaning firmly risk-on, but broader market fundamentals are warning of further losses to come.
• Holiday-thinned market volumes are seeing major pairs make drastic changes on little movement, but overall directional bias remains muted.

EUR/USD is cycling near 1.1450 ahead of the European market session, catching some tentative lift as markets edge out some risk appetite in the post-holiday market run before New Year’s.

Geopolitical concerns are once again at the forefront, with political turmoil in Europe, the UK, the US, and China all delivering a constant cycle of fear-inducing headlines as the US barrels towards an open tradewar  with China, US President Donald Trump blockades his own government seeking $5 billion in taxpayers’ money to build a border wall he swore on the election trail that Mexico would pay for, as well as taking potshots at his own pick for the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, while on the European side, Brexit finagling has investors growing more nervous as the clock winds down, and the EU faces another round of deficit-busting with Italy defiantly thumbing their noses at the European Commission while France also seeks special treatment and an exclusion to overspend against their own government budget, outside of EU regulations.

The EUR sees a rash of low- and medium-tier economic data for Friday, but the key reading will be Germany’s Harmonized CPI reading at 13:00 GMT, with the key annualized preliminary CPI into December forecast to come in at 1.9%, a slight decline from the previous period’s 2.3%. On the US side, the Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index for December will be dropping at 14:45 GMT, followed closely by Pending and New Home Sales figures at 15:00 GMT.

EUR/USD Levels to watch

EUR/USD is looking moderately neutral in the charts, with 4hour candlesticks keeping the pair constrained within familiar levels, and failure to push beyond the key 1.1500 handle is likely to see a very quick turnaround back into the low end below 1.1300.