“The December jobs report was strong across the board. Nonfarm payroll growth of 312K far exceeded market expectations, while a strong 0.4% m/m increase in average hourly earnings pushed annual wage growth to a cycle high of 3.2%,” note TD Securities analysts.
Key quotes
“The unemployment rate rose for the “right” reasons as the participation rate rose to 63.1% “” the highest rate in over a year. All this leaves the Fed in a challenging spot, as nothing in this report suggests the Fed should be cutting rates in line with recent market pricing.”
“Rates: The strong report offered the market a respite from recent risk-off sentiment, but it will likely take progress on China trade negotiations and a conciliatory tone from Chair Powell for yields to more fully retrace their recent move lower.”
“FX: Despite a solid report, a lot more will be needed for FX markets to surmount the wall of worry that is well fortified at this juncture. The muted reaction in FX suggests a focus to upcoming Fed speak. On balance, we expect FX markets to be largely contained though we think the bulk of heavy selling pressure in USDJPY has passed.”
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