According to Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN AMRO, the latest confidence indicators for the month of January of Eurozone are painting a picture of confidence stabilising after it dropped sharply in the final months of 2018.
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“To begin with, Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment rose from -17.5 in December to -15 in January. Considering that the series moves in a range from -100 to +100, this rise was relatively modest. Moreover, it kept the indicator below its September 2018 level and also well below its long-term average value of 22.”
“Next, France’s business climate indicator for the manufacturing sector as measured by the INSEE stabilised at 103 in January. At this level it is somewhat above its long-term average value of 100, but well below the level of September 2018 (of 107).”
“Finally, the flash estimate for consumer sentiment in the eurozone was published. It picked up a bit in January (to -7.9, up from -8.3 in December).”
“All in all, we think the abovementioned confidence indicators are in line with our view that the weakness in the eurozone economy that began in 2018Q3 continued moving into 2019, with GDP growth stuck below the trend rate.”
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