“We expect the FOMC to replace “some further gradual” hikes with flexible, data-dependent language, but still see risks as roughly balanced,” TD Securities analysts said in a report previewing next week’s key macro events in the U.S.
Key quotes
“Chair Powell could hint that the runoff policy could conclude sooner, but not give any concrete details or dates. We expect limited reaction after markets moved sharply Friday on rumors of a “roadmap” for the balance sheet.”
” We look for payrolls to mean-revert to 150k following a larger-than-expected jump in December, while the unemployment rate should tick up to 4.0% largely reflecting furloughed government workers during the shutdown. For ISM manufacturing, regional surveys suggest further weakness in the manufacturing sector in January. We expect an additional moderation in the index to 53.3.”
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