Analysts at ANZ suggest that changes to Statistics New Zealand’s methodology related to the removal of departure cards have resulted in significant revisions to migration data, with the level of net migrants now estimated to be significantly lower over history.
Key Quotes
“These data suggest the recent trend of easing net inflows has been a touch more marked over the past year or so, which is consistent with the softer read from Q3 GDP.”
“We expect the net migration cycle to continue easing gradually, with departures lifting as previous arrivals on temporary visas continue to cycle out.”
“Turning to the details, seasonally adjusted net migration inflows fell 1,020 m/m in November to 2,480. On the face of it, this is a dramatic monthly decline. In fact, it’s the largest in the new series’ history (which is short: from June 2014). However, revisions may alter this picture in time. New Zealand citizens recorded a monthly net outflow of 1,360, 330 more than October. An increase in NZ citizen arrivals (up 90 to 3,470) was more than offset by higher departures (up 420 to 4,830). Non-NZ citizen arrivals rose by 180 to 9,630, but 870 more departures (to 5,790) saw the net figure slip significantly.”
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