EUR/USD: resting below 100-day MA, data heavy day ahead

• Softer growth figures pushed the EUR below the 100-day moving average (MA) yesterday.
• The pair may slide further to 10-day MA at 1.14 if the preliminary Eurozone CPI prints below estimates. The decline, however, would be reversed if the US wage growth numbers disappoint expectations, validating Fed’s dovish turn.

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1440, having hit a high of 1.1514 in the Asian session yesterday.

The common currency had closed above the 100-day MA on Wednesday, courtesy of the dovish Fed. The break above the long-term MA, however, was short-lived, as markets offered common currency on renewed growth concerns.

Notably,  the Italian economy contracted by -0.2% over the quarter in the final quarter of last year technically entering the recession, official data released yesterday showed. Further, the Eurozone economy expanded 1.8 percent in 2018, missing the ECB’s estimate of 2.5 percent by a big margin.

The disappointing growth numbers validated ECB’s recent dovish tilt, pushing the EUR/USD back below the 100-day MA. As of writing, that long-term MA is located at 1.1453.

A deeper drop toward 1.14 could be seen if the Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) for January, due at 10:00 GMT, prints below estimates. That could put pressure on the ECB to make a dovish change in its forward guidance in March.

Post-Eurozone CPI, the focus would shift to US non-farm payrolls and wage data. A big miss on expectations could prove costly for the US dollar, as it will likely trigger expectations of a near-term change in the Fed’s balance sheet normalization program.

The US central bank kept rates unchanged earlier this week and expressed willingness to adjust its quantitative tightening program if required.

Technical Levels