EUR/USD: Indecisive market, bulls need break above 1.1570

• EUR/USD created a doji candle last week, signaling indecision in the market.
• A convincing move above 1.1570 would signal a bullish reversal, although that is unlikely to happen in the near-term, courtesy of dovish ECB expectations.  

The EUR/USD pair hit a high and low of 1.1570 and 1.1289, respectively, before ending the month on a flat note at 1.1447.

Essentially, the pair created a classic doji candle last month, which is widely considered a sign of indecision in the market place.

The next big move depends on the follow-through to that doji candle. Acceptance above the previous month’s high of 1.1570 would imply a bullish reversal and allow a test of supply around the key resistance of 1.1815 (September 2018 high).

A move below 1.1289 (last month’s low) would boost the odds of a drop to the psychological support of 1.10.

The markets seem to have priced in the Fed rate hike pause in the last few weeks. Further, investors may reassess the Fed outlook if the US data continues to beat expectations and wage price inflation shows signs of life. Put simply, the prospects of a convincing break above 1.1570 looks weak.

Meanwhile, the ECB rate hike expectations are melting away. Therefore, the probability of a near-term drop below 1.289 is high.

EUR/USD Technical Levels