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US manufacturing lull looks temporary – ING

“The fall in the ISM manufacturing index is disappointing, but seems driven by customers running down inventories. Given sound economic fundamentals there is scope for a rebound in 2Q19,” argues James Knightley, ING’s Chief International Economist.

Key quotes

“The report shows that customer inventory levels plummeted to an eight-year low. This would explain the soft new orders figures and weaker production growth. Given the robust jobs market and strong consumer demand coupled with rebounding equities and encouraging news on a potential US-China trade deal, we think the US economy remains in decent shape.  

“As such we would expect customer inventories to be gradually rebuilt in the months ahead, which could be the catalyst for stronger manufacturing activity in 2Q19. This, in turn, could pave the way for a Federal Reserve rate hike in Q3 as suggested by former NY Fed President William Dudley in comments today.”

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