Home We look for NFP to mean-revert to 190k in February – TD Securities
FXStreet News

We look for NFP to mean-revert to 190k in February – TD Securities

Previewing next week’s significant macro events next week in Americas, “Following two consecutive reports with initial 300k+ prints, we look for payrolls to mean-revert to 190k in February,” TD Securities analysts said.

Key quotes

“We also expect the phase-out of the impact from the government shutdown to be reflected on a tick down in the unemployment rate to 3.9%. Lastly, we forecast wages to rise by a “soft” 0.3% m/m pace (3.3% y/y) in February aided by a favorable reference week.”

“Disappointing Q4 GDP complicates what had originally looked like a placeholder BoC meeting. This may challenge Pololz’s conviction on future rate hikes and while we expect the Bank to leave forward guidance unchanged for now, the poor GDP introduces a material risk that they will abandon the pretense of further tightening given their adherence to data-dependent monetary policy.”

“NY Fed President Williams speaks on “The Economic Outlook: The ‘New Normal’ Is Now.” He may repeat no further rate hikes until inflation rises, which should get a dovish market reaction. If Williams again advocates “average inflation targeting” as part of the Fed’s framework review, markets would react even more dovishly.”

FX Street

FX Street

FXStreet is the leading independent portal dedicated to the Foreign Exchange (Forex) market. It was launched in 2000 and the portal has always been proud of their unyielding commitment to provide objective and unbiased information, to enable their users to take better and more confident decisions.