James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, notes that the US 4Q GDP has been revised down to 2.2% QoQ annualised from the 2.6% figure initially reported, marking its weakest reading since 1Q18 and it will do little to dispel talk of an intensifying US economic slowdown.
Key Quotes
“Yet we have to remember that this still equates to growth of 3%YoY, something that virtually any other developed market would desperately love to have.”
“The details show consumer spending growth now at 2.5% versus 2.8% originally while non-residential investment was revised to 5.4% from 6.2% and residential investment is now -4.7% versus the -3.5% figure initially reported. Government spending was revised to -0.4% from +0.4%, but the contribution to growth from net trade was revised up to -0.08 percentage points from -0.22 percentage points. Inventories were largely left unchanged.”
“Taking a step back it is clear that the US economy continues to perform very well both in absolute terms and relative to key developed market economies. Output is now 20% above its 2008 pre-crisis peak with the economy having grown 24% since its 2009 trough, whereas the UK and Germany are eight percentage points behind and Italy is in a completely different race.”
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