Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN AMRO, points out that according to the ECB’s latest data, monthly flow in bank lending to non-financial companies bounced back in February (to EUR 17bn) after it had turned negative for the first time since mid-2017 in January.
Key Quotes
“The less volatile three-month moving average flow declined from EUR 10.5bn in January to EUR 8.6bn in February. This series has gradually declined since the middle of 2018, when it peaked at EUR 17bn. As a result, the annual growth rate has also decreased, to 3.7% in February, down from 4.3% in September 2018.”
“If the monthly flow were to stabilise at its average level of the past three months during the rest of the year, the annual growth rate would drop to below 3% around the middle of the year, and to just above 2% by the end of the year.”
“Looking forward, we expect economic growth to remain on its sub-trend growth level in 2019H1, implying that bank lending should slow further in the coming quarters.”
Share
