US macro data overview
Monday’s US economic docket highlights the delayed release of monthly retail sales figures for the month of February, scheduled at 12:30 GMT. Consensus estimates point to another month of modest growth, with headline sales projected to rise by 0.3% m/m and sales excluding automobiles decelerating to 0.4% from previous month’s solid growth of 0.9%. Meanwhile, the Control Group sales are forecast to advance by 0.4%, down from 1.1% solid growth recorded in the previous month.
Adding to this, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will also release its latest manufacturing business survey result at 14:00 GMT. Consensus estimate point to a steady reading of 54.2 for March and any significant deviation has the potential to trigger some choppy US Dollar price action.
How could the releases affect EUR/USD?
Ahead of the key releases, Yohay Elam, FXStreet’s own Analyst, offers some important technical levels to trade the major: “Immediate resistance is at 1.1250 that held the pair down on Friday. 1.1285 was another high point last week and it is followed by 1.1330 that limited any gains early last week.”
“Support is found at 1.1210 which was the low point on Friday. The next support line is the 2019 trough of 1.1186. The next lines are already from 2017: 1.1115 and 1.1025,” he added further.
Key Notes
“¢ US Retail Sales: Back to normal consumption? It could cheer markets, but not the USD
“¢ ISM Manufacturing PMI Preview: How worried are businesses? 3 scenarios for the potentially contrarian USD reaction
“¢ EUR/USD Forecast: Don’t be fooled by the April Fool’s Day recovery
“¢ EUR/USD Technical Analysis: A visit to 2019 low at 1.1176 remains on the cards
About US retail sales
The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
About the US ISM manufacturing PMI
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index shows business conditions in the US manufacturing sector. It is a significant indicator of the overall economic condition in the US. A result above 50 is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a result below 50 is seen as negative (or bearish).
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