Odds of a no deal Brexit slashed from 15% to 10% – Goldman Sachs

In the latest client note on the Brexit issue, analysts at Goldman Sachs modified their probabilities for the Brexit outcomes.

Key Quotes:

“We revise down the  probability we attach to a “no deal” Brexit from 15% to 10%.  

We revise up the probability we attach to a modified Brexit deal from 45% to 50%.  

We leave our  “no Brexit” probability unchanged at 40%.”

In our central scenario, the UK leaves the EU in an orderly fashion before elections to the European Parliament take place at the end of May. Outside our central scenario, we think the risks are skewed decisively in the direction of a longer Article 50.”