Analysts at TD Securities, point out that the armed conflict between forces loyal to General Haftar and the UN-backed government has intensified in Libya, raising fears of civil-war on the scale of the 2011 uprising that toppled and killed longtime dictator Muammar Gaddafi.
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“Following several months of disappointing production, Libya’s output just recently recovered to 1.1 million bbls last month. The additional crude is needed to balance the market, at a time when Venezuelan supply is likely to slide lower.”
“US sanctions against Iran could further exacerbate the negative impact on supply from the region, as highlighted by reports that India has delayed May orders for crude from Iran until they gain further clarity on US sanctions waivers. We continue to expect that these forces could conspire to see WTI crude prices temporarily overshoot our $64/bbl target.”
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