- Soft data from the US and positive headlines concerning the trade deal between the US and China favor Kiwi ahead of inflation figures.
- 200-day SMA and 0.6800 are likely immediate levels to watch for NZD/USD traders.
NZD/USD is on the bids around 0.6770 at the start of Asian trading on Thursday. The Kiwi pair is on the positive tone off-late as recent positive news report concerning the US-China trade talks joins the overall weakness of the US Dollar (USD). Traders may now await inflation numbers from New Zealand and China for fresh impulse.
Global growth fears and soft data at home are likely major factors driving the greenback down off-late. On Wednesday, headline inflation numbers came in weaker than expected while minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting reiterated the central-banks cautiously dovish message.
The US consumer prices index (CPI) crossed the 0.3% and 1.8% respective market consensus on MoM and YoY basis to flash 0.4% and 1.9%. However, CPI ex-food and energy marked declines to 0.1% and 2.0% from 0.2% and 2.1% forecasts on a monthly and a yearly basis respectively. Also, the FOMC minutes said that the policymakers expect steady rates this year.
Moving on, trade talks between the US and China are going well. The Financial Times recently reported that the Wednesday’s telephonic discussions between the two led towards opening up of enforcement offices into the respective countries to monitor the implementation of a deal.
Coming up next in the market players’ radar will be New Zealand’s Food Price Index (FPI) followed by China’s consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI). New Zealand FPI can rise to 1.3% (MoM) during March against 0.4% prior whereas Chinese inflation numbers are likely to show a mixed picture of the economy during March month. China’s CPI may inflate to 2.4% (YoY) versus 1.5% earlier but could decline to -0.2% on a monthly basis compared to +1.0% previous outcome. The PPI, on the other hand, could rise to 0.4% (YoY) from 0.1% prior.
Additionally, the expected increase in the weekly US jobless claims to 211K from 202K during the week ended on April 05 might will also be observed for further clarification of the trend.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
NZD/USD needs to clear 0.6800 round-figure in order to aim for 100-day simple moving average (SMA) figure of 0.6810, followed by 0.6820 comprising 50-day SMA.
Failure to rise beyond 0.6800 can continue highlighting the importance of the 200-day SMA level around 0.6730 and 0.6700 support-mark.
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