- WTI is currently trading at $64.47 trading within a range of between $64.08 and $64.68bbls.
- WTI holds the bid despite the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reporting that U.S. crude supplies climbed by 7 million barrels for the week ended April 5 and IMF’s downgrade to global growth forecasts yesterday.
WTI is defying gravity on Wednesday and remains above a key technical level. Market noise on Wednesday was centred around the FOMC minutes that came in with no great shakes and much in line with what the markets had already priced in, giving the dollar a temporary lift on the releases that had otherwise been better offered into the minutes.
Keynotes from today’s FOMC minutes (20 March meeting):
The majority saw rates on hold through 2019;
Several officials noted that rate views could shift either way;
Majority of policymakers said patience needed;
Several officials concerned yield curve quite flat;
Fed noted significant uncertainties around the outlook;
Uncertainty remained high over Brexit and trade but that risks of adverse outlook had fallen;
Some said economy could rebound and warrant a rate hike late in the year;
No officials said expected that a rate cut would be needed this year;
Time would be needed to assess whether Q1 weakness would spill into Q2;
Saw less of a boost from fiscal policy than expected;
Most likely outcome was a sustained expansion.
Elsewhere, the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported that U.S. crude supplies climbed by 7 million barrels for the week ended April 5. However, the EIA also showed that supplies of gasoline dropped by 7.7 million barrels, while distillates declined by 100,000 barrels last week, according to the EIA.
WTI levels
WTI continues to hold above the 61.8% Fibo, although has not made a higher high, so far, on Wednesday. Tuesday’s high was 64.77, Wednesday’s has been 64.68. However, a high low has been made. However, hourly stochastics lean bearish as does RSI – 4HR stochastics are on the verge of a negative turn also – (Thus, bears be looking to engage here with a strategic stop through trend line resistance and the 65 handle). The late Oct lows is the next key upside target at 65.77. On the flipside, the 61.8% Fibo down in the 63.70s with, ideally an engulfing bearish close below 8th April’s low could open the case for 61.80, below the 504hr SMA (62.80) and 2nd Apri tops.
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