- Investors await China CPI and Aussie catalysts to validate the pullback past-New Zealand FPI release.
- Break of immediate support-line can drag prices to 100-day SMA.
AUD/NZD is on the rounds near 1.0590 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The quote remains around 11-week high flashed late-Wednesday but slipped recently after the New Zealand FPI. Markets now await inflation numbers from Australia and China, followed by comments from the RBA’s Assistant Governor in order to determine near-term trade direction.
Odds favoring the US and China to announce the much-awaited trade deal have recently increased and could also be witnessed in the AUD/NZD pair’s uptick to the highest levels since January 22. Latest Financial Times report mentions that the two economies are planning to open trade enforcement offices as a sign of progress in the negotiations.
Prices witnessed pullback after Statistics New Zealand released March month Food Price Index (FPI) (MoM) data. The inflation figure came in better than 0.4% prior to +0.5% but still lagged behind the +1.3% forecast.
Traders now await consumer inflation expectations for April followed by China’s CPI and PPI with Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Guy Debelle likely standing at the end-point of the watch-list.
Australian consumer inflation expectations flashed 4.1% during its last update while the RBA’s Assistant Governor is up for a speech at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association Annual Meeting in Hong Kong. In his latest speech, Mr. Debelle praised Aussie economics, especially labor market strength, while also leaving the doors open for either side policy moves.
China’s headline inflation numbers, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures for March month, will be up for release at 01:30 GMT. Forecasts suggest the annualized CPI reading to increase to 2.4% from 1.5% with PPI (YoY) likely rising to 0.4% from 0.1%. On a month-over-month basis, the CPI might tick down from 1.0% to -0.2% during the same period.
AUD/NZD Technical Analysis
AUD/NZD needs to provide a successful break of 1.0610 in order to aim for January month high near 1.0670 and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) figure of 1.0690. During the pair’s further upside past-1.0690, 1.0700, 1.0710 and 1.0760 could please buyers.
Alternatively, a downside break of 1.0550 immediate ascending support-line can drag the quote to 100-day SMA level of 1.0490 whereas 50-day SMA level of 1.0430 and 1.0370 might entertain sellers afterward.
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