“The labour market remains the key gauge of the economy for the Bank of England’s MPC,” note TD Securities analysts previewing next week’s key macro events in the UK.
Key quotes
“This week’s data is likely to reinforce strong fundamentals, with the UR remaining at a 40+ year low and growth in average weekly earnings ex-bonuses remaining strong. We expect core private sector ex-bonus wage growth to remain at its post-crisis high of 3.5% 3m/y.”
“The retail sales report is likely to reflect a consumer that continues to ignore Brexit uncertainty, with March’s flat figure rounding out a relatively strong quarter.”
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