Satish Ranchhod, senior economist at Westpac, points out that there was a net inflow of 5,000 people into the New Zealand in March, down on the level seen in February.
Key Quotes
“Importantly, Stats NZ have revised down their earlier estimates of net migration. While net flows into the country remain strong, they look like they are flattening off. We expect this to continue.”
“March saw a net inflow of 5,000 people into the country on a long run basis. That’s down from 5,750 last month, but still a firm level of monthly net migration.”
“The updated estimates released today indicate that, while migration remains strong, it has not been rising as rapidly as was initially thought. In fact, the uptrend in migration that began to emerge in mid-2018 is showing signs of flattening off over the past four months. That is much more consistent with where we see broader economic conditions in here NZ and abroad.”
“Taking the latest figures on board, annual net migration was 56,000 in the year to March. That’s still a high level, but is down 12% from the peak of the migration cycle in 2016.”
“Looking at today’s figures, and economic conditions more broadly, it still looks like New Zealand’s population is growing at a solid clip of around 1.8% per annum. However, we expect to see net migration and population gradually trending down over the next few years.”
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